Dear Express Reader The dates for elections in five states have been announced amid the Omicron surge, and it’s political showtime again. Physical rallies and roadshows are on hold till January 15, when the Election Commission will reassess the situation, but that decision may not be as critical as you might think. The physical campaign is only one part of electioneering. The power of making or influencing the last-minute “hawa” or momentum in favour of one party and against another has been shifting, more and more, to social media for some time now. Even otherwise, campaign rallies and roadshows often serve more to confirm, than to make, voting choices on the ground. Or they could even have little or nothing to do with those choices. While covering elections as a reporter, I have found that they serve more to mobilise the faithful rather than to persuade the sceptics or convert the undecided. People’s attendance or participation in election rallies and roadshows, therefore, can be very misleading. In October 2008, I travelled for a day, Day 6 of the Praja Ankita Yatra or roadshow, in Chiranjeevi’s specially designed campaign vehicle in coastal Andhra Pradesh. His Praja Rajyam Party had been launched in August, the Telugu superstar was making his political debut ahead of the assembly election in early 2009. All through the day, the crowds throbbed and heaved on both sides of the convoy, as people strained to catch a glimpse of the star. They were hanging onto electricity poles and branches of trees, balancing on ledges of roofs and balconies. And yet, come elections, the PRP’s performance was underwhelming: It won only 18 out of 294 seats, Chiranjeevi himself won only one out of the two seats he contested. More recently, Tejashwi Yadav’s rallies seemed packed and brimming in the Bihar assembly election campaign of October-November, 2020. Of course, the RJD under Tejashwi posted a robust tally even if it fell short of the winning mark — it won 75 seats and was the single largest party in the 243-member assembly. But the point is this: If you drew a conclusion going by the Tejashwi rally — as many did — the RJD was neatly sweeping that poll. They may not be the most reliable barometer for who is winning and who is not, but election rallies are interesting for other reasons. In UP, for instance, you can tell from a distance whether the rally is of the Samajwadi Party or the Bahujan Samaj Party. Both the stage and the audience are different, and contrasting. In the SP rally, men walk about with a loose-limbed swagger and the stage is so crowded and noisy that you need to search in the throng for the chief campaigner, be it Mulayam Singh Yadav earlier or his son and political heir, Akhilesh Yadav now. In a BSP rally, on the other hand, the crowd mostly sits in rows, patient and disciplined, as pre-recorded songs invoke India’s Constitution and struggles of Dalit icons. The stage is set to frame and spotlight Mayawati when she arrives — and there she sits, regal and alone, while party leaders stand or sit at a distance. No, the election rally or roadshow is not the decisive part of the campaign, and so its absence this time may not affect or alter the outcome. But it does mean that non-BJP parties will have to try and catch up with the BJP which has a clear head start on the others in digital and social media electioneering. As the party that sees itself as the challenger to the (now erstwhile) Congress dominance, as a party that continues to behave like the challenger even in power, as the party that projects itself at the helm of a permanent revolution, and as the party that has the Centre in its grip and the most resources at its command, the BJP will be the party to beat in the five states that go to polls. In four of them, it is also the ruling party. The non-BJP parties may have to confront the challenge, perhaps, by taking a leaf, or two, out of the BJP’s bristling digital/social media playbook. We’ll be watching, Vandita | 
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