Dear Readers, Just before the start of the Assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh, state’s Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath warned voters on Twitter: “I have to tell you something that is there in my heart. A lot of wonderful things have happened in these five years. Beware! If you miss, the labour of these five years will be spoiled. It would not take much time for Uttar Pradesh to become Kashmir, Kerala and Bengal.” In response, Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan tweeted: “If UP turns into Kerala as @myogiadityanath fears, it will enjoy the best education, health services, social welfare, living standards and have a harmonious society in which people won’t be murdered in the name of religion and caste. That is what people of UP would want.” This is not the first time Yogi Adityanath has compared UP to Kerala. Early in his current term, in October 2017 to be precise, he had said that Kerala could learn from UP’s healthcare system. So, how does UP compare to each of the three states that Adityanath has mentioned? Although one can compare the states over hundreds of parameters, yet to get a broad sense, ExplainSpeaking has chosen around 30 parameters classified over different categories — economic, law & order, health etc. The data is sourced from publicly available databases such as the National Family Health Survey (2021), the Reserve Bank of India and the Niti Aayog. Unless mentioned otherwise, all data corresponds to the year 2020-21. Each row provides the India average (if applicable); it also highlights the best-performing state (among the four under consideration) by mentioning its score in bigger-sized numerals. #1 Population profile (see Table 1) 
As can be seen by looking at Table 1 alongside, on most counts, UP not only trails the other three states in question but is also below the national average. Kerala, on the other hand, is the best placed among the four on almost all parameters. Take, for example, the average life expectancy, where UP trails the other states by anywhere between 7 to 10 years. There is one parameter — Population living in households with an improved drinking-water source (%) — on which UP is better than the other three states. However, while this figure corresponds to the NFHS-5 (2021), UP was ahead of all the other states on this count even during NFHS-4 (2016) — long before Adityanath took charge of the state. #2 Economic parameters (see Table 2) 
Again, on all counts, UP is far worse below the national average, and often enough, pales in comparison with the other states in question. For instance, UP’s per capita domestic product is much lower than others’ while it lags in far behind the rest in poverty (38% poverty ratio) and inequality (54% population fall in the lowest two wealth quintiles). Again, on most counts, Kerala is the best of the lot. In particular, its per capita income is more than three times that of UP. When it comes to the per capita availability of power — a key selling point of the Adityanath government — data shows that Jammu & Kashmir enjoys more than double the amount of power. #3 Law and Order (see Table 3) 
High standards of law & order is another key electoral claim of the Adityanath government in the run-up to the Assembly elections. But be it corruption cases, murders or crimes against members of the Scheduled Castes, UP is behind one or the other of the three states mentioned by Adityanath. Based on the evidence from Niti Aayog, West Bengal and Kerala appear to be far better on law & order than UP. #4 Status of women (see Table 4)
 India has a poor record when it comes to women-specific factors. The status of women and their involvement in the functioning of a state’s polity, economy and society more often than not best captures how progressive and successful that state is. Again, be it female literacy or spousal violence or the ratio of females to males in the labour force — UP is far behind all the states Adityanath mentioned. In fact, on most parameters recounted here, UP is even worse than the national average. There are two exceptions where UP is above the national average. First, the percentage of women owning a house or land is 52% — much above either Kerala or West Bengal. However, what immediately puts this statistic in perspective is the fact that the percentage of women who have a mobile phone of their own is even lower than the percentage owning property. The second key metric where UP shines is the proportion of women in managerial positions in listed companies. On this parameter, UP is not only better than the national average but also manages to sneak past Kerala by the barest of margins. Since the population growth rate is often highly politicised, it is noteworthy that the children per woman (or Total Fertility Rate) in UP is far higher than any of the three states mentioned by Adityanath. #5 Maternal & child health (see Table 5) 
Another clutch of parameters that capture the wellbeing of a state’s residents pertains to maternal and child health. As a country, India is one of the worst-placed when it comes to maternal and child health. These are critical parameters as they point to the weakness in the next generation of workers. As can be seen from the Table, UP is miles behind the other three states in comparison. Kerala, in fact, is far better than the national average. #6 Child nutrition (see Table 6) 
Arguably, India has the largest population of malnourished children in the world. These children go on to become malnourished adolescents, and it is of particular concern when malnourished girls themselves become mothers. Again, on most counts UP is behind the competition while Kerala leads yet again. UPSHOT: These are not the only factors one could look at. And it is possible that there might be some factors where UP might be better than the other three states. But the fact remains, even though UP is the most populous state, with massive political heft and one of the biggest overall economies in the country, at an average level UP is still a laggard. To that extent, any chief minister of UP faces a remarkable challenge. Did Adityanath not change things for the better in the past five years? A series of ExplainSpeaking articles examining the Yogi government’s performance over the past five years might provide some clues. These articles can be read here: > How per capita incomes grew in the poll-bound states > How unemployment rose, and > How inflation and wage rates changed. Continue sharing your views and queries at udit.misra@expressindia.com By the way, don’t miss the first part of the two-part interview of Pronab Sen, former Chief Statistician of India, analysing the Budget for 2022-23. Did the government get its Budget strategy right or will it fail the large swathes of informal sector workers? Catch it all here. Stay safe Udit If you received this newsletter as a forward, you can subscribe to it, here. Do read our other Explained articles, here | To subscribe to our other newsletters, click here | 
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