Dear reader, The BJP overcame anti-incumbency to score emphatic victories over its rivals in four of the five states that elected new assemblies on March 10. In the fifth state — Punjab — the AAP won a sensational two-thirds majority in the assembly. The Congress faced a near washout with its outgoing chief minister Charanjit Singh Channi and chief of the party's state unit, Navjot Siddhu, losing their seats. In Manipur, the Congress, which ran the government for three consecutive terms between 2002 and 2017, finished behind the National People's Party and the Janata Dal (United). The prime minister in his victory speech to party workers said the 2024 general election outcome has been settled in favour of the BJP. Politics is a strange beast and unexpected twists and turns can turn its world upside down. But it will require a herculean effort and lots of luck for the Opposition to stall the BJP's march from strength to strength. The Opinion pages on March 11 were devoted to commentary on the election results. The Express editorial ('The triumph') summed up the UP outcome thus: "The BJP's formidable electoral successes are a result of larger changes on the ground and they also serve to deepen the new currents and transitions. In UP, fighting as an incumbent, it had etched its pitch and appeal clearly: One, a promise of "suraksha (safety)" that melds the promise of stricter law and order at the local level with the pledge of a more self-conscious nationalism and harder national security, both backed by the redefinition of the state as a less forgiving, more retributive entity. Two, the state as the provider of direct transfers and schemes to the citizen as labharthi or beneficiary - in UP, the free ration scheme had touched large sections in a time of severe economic distress exacerbated by a public health emergency, but there were other schemes too that had reached those who had not felt touched by the state before, from Ujjwala gas cylinders to PM Kisan Samman Nidhi to toilets. And three, a Hindutva that is both more assertive and insecure. In UP, the BJP has stoked a cultural and religious consciousness that feels it was long denied its due in echelons of power and in public spaces and feels that its moment has finally come." The editorial argued that "the BJP's political opponents do not have an answer that is either coherent or credible to any of the strands of its multi-vocal appeal". Besides the BJP, the AAP had much to rejoice about the results. For the first time, it won outside Delhi, which is after all a state without the powers of a state. The AAP projected its "Delhi Model" as a governance blueprint to harvest the change vote in Punjab. As the Express editorial ('The party of change', March 11) said: "To build on its victory, the AAP must now construct a 'Punjab model' that responds to the strong desire for change that has propelled it to power with such a large mandate." The AAP's Punjab win is likely to resonate in neighbouring Himachal Pradesh and Haryana, two states dominated by the BJP and the Congress. The rise of AAP is likely to hurt the Congress in the short run. But if it refuses to pose an ideological challenge to the BJP — particularly the latter's ideas of secularism, nationalism etc. — and pitch itself purely as a party of good governance with a socially conservative agenda, it may become an option for the BJP voter as well." As for the Congress, its existence as a national party is under challenge. The present leadership has failed to improve its electoral fortunes or lift the morale of the party cadre. This is not the making of the Gandhi siblings alone, of course - for instance, the Congress last won a simple majority in a general election in 1984, that is 38 years ago. The party has been on the decline, though the UPA's 10 years in office gave the illusory impression that all was well with the party. The Express editorial ('The family must go', March 11) said the Nehru-Gandhi family has outlived its real or imagined utility for the Congress and is now a burden for the party. The revival of the party, according to the editorial, may take place only if the family, perceived as the remnant of a feudal culture and a symbol of entitlement, makes way for a new leadership, which can be held accountable for the party's electoral results. A similar crisis confronts the BSP as well, which now has a lone legislator in UP, a state that it had won in 2007 with 200 plus seats ('The BSP shrink', March 12). A series of articles — Pratap Bhanu Mehta ('The revolution marches on', March 11), Suhas Palshikar ('The BJP-led polity', March 11), Ashutosh Varshney ('Democracy vs democracy', March 12) and Surjit Bhalla ('The rational voter', March 12) — looked at the big picture that emerges from the assembly election results. Mehta argued that "the BJP has transformed the nature of politics in ways to which the Opposition has no answer". He listed five reasons for the BJP's success - a social base, especially amongst women and lower castes, and "a spectacular geographic reach"; the voters' weariness with "old, corrupt, doddering, ancient regimes trying to reinvent themselves"; the party's ability to think politically; leadership; and ideology. Mehta also had a chilling warning: "Here is one simple thing Indian democracy will have to think about after these elections. The fact that a politics that has venom, hate, prejudice, violence, repression and deceit is not a deal-breaker for voters is something to think about. This road always ends in catastrophe. The somewhat less disquieting answer is that this is a reflection of the depth of incompetence to which the Opposition has sunk. The more disquieting answer is that the loss of our moral compass on fundamental values is irretrievable." Varshney read the results as a warning that "electoral democracy can be a vehicle of an assault on constitutional democracy". Drawing on the experience of post-war Malaysia, where the rise of Malay majoritarian politics undermined ethnic and religious minorities such as people of Chinese and Tamil origins, Varshney argued that UP's Muslims and the political parties that seek to include their concerns and interests in their politics will have to find a way to wean away some fragments of the hegemonic social block — "a powerful cross-caste alliance in the service of Hindu nationalism" — the BJP has created. Ajai Vir Jakhar ('In Punjab, a clear wind for change', March 11), Kham Khan Suan Hausing ('Fluid and consolidating', March 12), Anoop Nautiyal ('In Himalayas, saffron peak', March 11), Manoj S Kamath ('A Goan surprise', March 11), Rajendra P Mamgain ('A plan for the hills', March 12) focussed on specific regions to explain the outcomes. Expect more articles, analyses and editorials on the poll outcomes in the coming week. Thank you, Amrith | 
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